WASHINGTON — Ahead of the midterm elections, analysts who spoke with OSV News said polling data shows Catholic voters are reflecting broader trends, but some unique factors may contribute to their voting behavior.
Ryan Burge, author of the Substack newsletter “Graphs about Religion” and a professor of practice at the John C. Danforth Center at Washington University in St. Louis, told OSV News, “We used to say that America looks like Catholics, and Catholics look like America on election day. They’re very much like the most representative religious group.”
“It looks like the Catholic vote has shifted pretty significantly toward the Democrats in the last two years, which is a very big deal because that’s a whole lot of voters in places that they need to be in to win elections in these close races,” Burge said.
A survey published Oct. 15 by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that registered voters who identified as Democrats were more enthusiastic than voters who identified as Republicans about casting a ballot. More voters said they want Democrats to win control of Congress, it found.
A recent Pew Research Center survey found that among all Catholics 42% said that if the election were held today, they would vote for the Democrat in their House district, 39% said the Republican, while another 19% said they were unsure or would select another party’s candidate. But it also found white Catholics and Hispanic Catholics divide sharply over which party’s candidates they plan to support in the midterms.
Among white Catholics, 50% said they would support the Republican candidate, and 32% said the Democrat, with another 18% unsure. Among Hispanic Catholics, 59% said they would support the Democrat, 19% said the Republican candidate, and 21% said they were unsure.
Taken together, the polls show what analysts have described as a challenging environment for Republicans, who are seeking to maintain control of Congress amid an unpopular war with Iran and increasing consumer prices, particularly on energy.
Andrew Chesnut, who holds the Bishop Walter F. Sullivan Chair in Catholic Studies at Virginia Commonwealth University, told OSV News that President Donald Trump’s “declining support among Catholics reflects broader dissatisfaction with his presidency, but there are also distinctly Catholic factors at work.”
“Unlike white evangelical Protestants, who remain Trump’s most loyal religious constituency, Catholics are politically divided, with Hispanic Catholics leaning Democratic and white Catholics more inclined toward the GOP,” Chesnut said.
Catholic social teaching on issues including “immigration, poverty, and human dignity” has created “tensions with some of Trump’s policies, particularly among Latino Catholics and those who identify with the Church’s social justice tradition,” he said.
“Consequently, his declining popularity among Catholics reflects both the national political climate and the distinctive religious and ethnic diversity of American Catholicism,” he continued.
Burge said, “I think this is an economic election. We can say that without a shadow of a doubt that everyone’s worried about inflation, gas prices, eggs, milk, all that stuff.”
But he pointed to two issues that may have pushed Catholic voters away from Trump: some of the immigration policies Trump has implemented that Catholic leaders have objected to, and Trump’s social media and verbal attacks on Pope Leo XIV earlier this year.
“Trump’s tussle with the Pope definitely did him no favors when it came to Catholics,” Burge said of Trump’s scathing critique of the pope, but added that Catholic leaders have been vocal about the Church’s opposition to the Iran war and certain immigration policies as well, such as indiscriminate mass deportations or policies that separate families.
Margaret Susan Thompson, an associate professor of history at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship & Public Affairs, who has studied the intersection of religion and politics in the U.S., told OSV News that Pope Leo has had an influence.
“I think he has become an influence not because he’s been explicitly political, but because he has emphasized Catholic social teaching and reminded Catholics, including Catholic voters in the U.S. that Catholic social teaching is a part of the teaching of the Church,” Thompson said of the first U.S.-born pontiff. “So for example, when he talks about things like how we treat the poor, how we treat the stranger, including the immigrant, how we think about the death penalty, how we think of war and peace — What’s a just war? Is there such a thing as a just war? — All of these really, really difficult questions, he’s reminding Catholics that this is not optional.”
Asked if Trump’s comments about Pope Leo had an impact on Catholic voters’ perceptions of his presidency, Thompson replied, “It didn’t help.”
The Pew survey found Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 47% at the beginning of his second term to 30% in October 2026. Among Hispanic Catholics, it dropped from 31% to 18%, and among white Catholics from 59% to 39% over the same period.
Chesnut said much of this difference “reflects long-standing ethnic and socioeconomic divisions, with white Catholics more receptive to Republican positions on abortion and cultural conservatism, while Hispanic Catholics are often more concerned about economic inequality and the treatment of immigrant communities.”
“Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement policies are especially consequential for Latino Catholics, many of whom have immigrant relatives or belong to parishes where immigration is a pressing pastoral concern,” he continued. “Ultimately, these differences remind us that American Catholicism is far from a political monolith, and that shared religious identity does not necessarily translate into shared political orientation.”
Catholic voters are “likely to play an especially important role,” Chestnut added, in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, with competitive races in New York and New Jersey “also worth watching.”
The midterm elections are scheduled for Nov. 3. Archbishop Paul S. Coakley, president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, issued a statement Oct. 14 reminding the faithful that “for citizens in a representative democracy such as our own, participation in public life — including voting — is both a right and a responsibility.”
Kate Scanlon is a national reporter for OSV News covering Washington. Follow her on X @kgscanlon.
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